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The production performance and its effects in the generation of formal employment in the Central region of Mexico are analyzed at the major division level dewcargar manufacture.
The most dynamic activity divisions of the manufacturing industry are identified and, by estimating a function of employment with panel data for each of the nine major divisions of manufacture, it is reported that the activity ecohometria Food products, beverages and tobaccoII. Textiles, clothing and leather industryIII.
Timber industry and wood products and IX. Other manufacturing industries show high employment income elasticity 0.
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Furthermore, the divisions that comprise the more technical branches, with greater innovation processes and high levels of export, such as division VIII. Metal products, machinery and equipmentshow lower elasticity. Productos alimenticios, bebidas y tabacoII. Textiles, prendas de vestir e industria del cueroIII.
Industria de la madera y productos de madera y IX. Otras industrias manufactureras presentan una alta elasticidad al ingreso del empleo 0. In the years following the Great Recession of —, the difficulty that the economic activity had to reactivate the levels of growth and employment generation in Mexico was made more evident.
However, these problems do not refer to recent years, as the difficulty for growth was already made manifest since the s, intensifying with the beginning of the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA in There was confidence that with the free commerce, exports would be strengthened and the long-term sustained increase of the economic activity would be consolidated with effects on the economic growth of the country and on employment.
Twenty years after the operations of the NAFTA began, evidence from recent years makes it clear that the balances of free commerce have not been the expected in terms of growth and generation of employment, especially in the manufacturing sector. Everything suggests that this sector, even when it was strongly linked to the export dynamic, has not managed to influence the job creation process in any relevant manner Dussel Peters, It could also be associated to the changes that have emerged in the structure of the productive sectors in recent decades, where the service sectors are gaining a greater relevance in contrast to the industrial and agriculture and livestock sectors.
This is due to the fact that in Mexico there is a preference for an economic growth model in which the external sector determines the trajectory of the growth, and the manufacturing sector only complements it.
Although the literature that analyzes the manufacturing sector in Mexico is relatively broad, the works that point toward a line of research that tries to explain in some detail the employment determinants by major division of the manufacturing structure at the state or regional level are few. Specifically, the works of Livas and Krugmanand Hanson have become references in the analysis of the patterns of industrial growth between regions, especially because they report significant changes in the industrial employment growth patterns and highlight the rapid growth of the manufacturing activity in the north frontier and the loss in the large cities of Mexico.
In this context, the objective of this work is to analyze, at the manufacturing major division level, the performance of the production and the generation of manufacturing employment in the states of the central region of Mexico, as well as to identify some employment determinants that could explain the differences between the manufacturing divisions.
The analysis of the article focuses on the Central region of Mexico and is divided into three sections, in addition to the introduction and conclusion. The first section contextualizes the problem of low growth in the economic activity of Mexico in recent decades and the general effects present in manufacture and employment. The second section details the analysis of the manufacture and the structure of the employment and production for the states of the Central region of Mexico at the major division level.
Finally, the third section presents and discusses the results of the estimation, with panel data, of the employment functions for each of the nine large manufacturing divisions in the Central region of Mexico. In the last three decades, the Mexican economy has experienced a lower growth rate than what it had at the beginnings of the s. This performance has been explained through different arguments, but there is a central point worth mentioning that refers to the effects that the growth of economic activity has had in the generation of employment.
They specifically provide evidence of the high correlation between the low economic growth of the total GDP and the low growth of the manufacturing output. According to these authors, between andthe Mexican economy grew 2.
Associated to this phenomenon is the high unemployment and the employment instability: In this sense, an important part of the explanation of the deficiency of the formal economy to generate the jobs demanded by the labor market is in the importance of the dynamic of the economic activity of the country.
If the growth rate of the real GDP and total employment for the Mexican economy are reviewed within a relatively long period, the observed tendency is that the crisis of marked the end of a relatively high output growth phase with relatively high rates 6. In the period of — the average growth of the real GDP was of 2.
Real gross domestic product and total employment, — This is important because it suggests reviewing what is happening with the sectoral production in order to identify if this slow growth process has spread in similar magnitudes to the sectors of economic activity.
Table 1 shows the changes to the structure of the GDP and total and sectoral employment in detail. First, it is evident that for the entire period of to the average growth of 3. It stands out that the services sector is the one that has grown the most, with a yearly average growth rate of 3. Furthermore, it must be noted that according to the standard deviation of the manufacturing GDP, it is a sector with significant fluctuations regarding the median, contrary to what occurs with the service sector.
Moreover, the manufacturing sector is very sensitive to the fluctuations of the Mexican economy and the external sector, and as such has reported years with heavy drops and boom periods with significant growth rates. Growth rate of the real GDP and employment, total and sectoral.
Basic statistics by periods, — If we divide the period of — into two sub-periods — and — to identify the changes in the structure of the sectoral employment following the crisis ofwhich has become the starting and breaking point of a growth model based on external demand and has given way to the low growth phase of Mexico, we find some significant regularities in an aggregated manner. It is clear that between andthe final phase of the Mexican miracle was experienced with relatively high growth rates for the Mexican economy, with a 6.
This period, which was relatively dynamic for the three production sectors, significantly changed at the start of the s see Table For the period of — manufacturing stopped growing at the rates that characterized it until before the crisis of and has followed a similar tendency to the behavior of the Mexican economy with an average rate of 2.
The scenario becomes complicated if we analyze the period of —, during which the average growth of manufacturing was not only lower 1. In this sense, Dussel Peters notes that the capacity for the generation of employment of the manufacturing sector has been drastically reduced, as the average growth of employment during these years has been negative, which indicates that the sector has ejected work. This evidences the decrease in its capacity to drive the economic activity of the country.
On the other hand, the author also argues that perhaps the results could be explained by the fact that starting onmanufacturing specialized in capital intensive exporting activities, which has generated a reduced process for employment creation. On the other hand, Dussel Peters and Ortiz highlight a systematic drop of the relative weight of the permanent manufacturing employment with regard to the total permanent employment, from Moreover, they note that employment in the manufacturing sector was one of the most affected by the economic crisis ofgiven that of the thousand permanent jobs lost between October and Maythousand corresponded to the manufacturing sector.
This means that 1 of every 2 permanent jobs during these months corresponded to manufacturing activities, which translates to a drop of 9. Thus, the employment structure by sector of activity has changed in a significant manner in recent decades. The service sector gains increasing importance in contrast to the industrial and agriculture and livestock sectors.
Percentage structure of the sectoral employment, — This reorganization of the sectoral employment structure is relevant from different perspectives. Furthermore, it generally provides greater benefits and safety to the workers than jobs in other sectors, and tends to develop better abilities than equivalent jobs in the rest of the economy Lavopa and Szirmai,cited in ONUDI, The service sector represents the opposite case, especially because it incorporates an important part of informal employment.
Regarding this point, Dussel Peters and Ortiz note that since the year employment has redirected the service industry, and manufacturing has lost 9. In this ceonometria, agricultural employment continues the tendency that has characterized it in recent decades: Specifically, the existence of a vicious cycle between the low growth in production and the low growth in employment stands out which leads to low incomes and thus a limited market growthwhich perpetuates the vicious cycle of economic ecoonometria.
The regions of Mexico are clearly no strangers to this tendency, especially because the productive activity has not responded to the pressure exercised by the economically active population on the job market, and because manufacture, as the most dynamic sector, is certainly causing a decrease in the number of wooldricge. In this context, the case of the Central region of Mexico is specifically addressed in the following section.
These states, in addition to their geographical location, have the presence of the manufacturing industry as one of the main economic and employment generation activities in common. Intheir contribution was of In the other states, manufacturing activities though in recent years they wooldridgd lost representativeness regarding the activities of the secondary sector have a significant participation within the introducion productive structure.
The contributions to the total GDP of each state are the following: Although the weight of the manufacturing industry has decreased with regard to the service sector, there can be no doubt that it continues to be a sector whose activity is highly important in driving the aggregated economic activity of the regions and the country and, consequently, employment. That is, the evolution of the Mexican economy significantly depends on the performance of its manufacturing industry see Guerrero de Lizardi, In this sense, it is important to analyze the performance shown by the manufacturing industry in order to identify the most dynamic divisions of activity in each of the states of the Central region.
According to the indicator of the evolution of the manufacturing production per major division, its performance in recent years has not been homogeneous.
Divisions II and III have stagnated, particularly after the yearwhereas divisions VIII and IX have stood out because after the crisis their evolution has been above the rest of the manufacturing divisions see Fig.
Evolution of the GDP of manufacture per major division, — Although the dynamism of the different manufacturing divisions is not the same, in most of them a process of growth can be observed; however, this tendency contrasts with what can be observed regarding employment.
In particular, after the year the employment levels have decreased for all the divisions, which denotes a growth process without consequential effects in the volumes of employment.
Even the decreasing tendency of recent years would entail a loss of formal employments see Fig. Evolution of the employment of manufacture per major division, — For the case of the Central region, this tendency has not changed in a significant manner. Specifically, some authors report that the region has lost representativeness in the ensemble of economic activity, whereas other regions especially those in the north have gained participation.
In the North-central region, the growth rate was of 5. In recent years, there has been a clear shift of the manufacturing activities in favor of the northern regions of the country. Although the evidence presented for manufacture shows heterogeneities in the growth by regions, it is also important to analyze what happens by division of activity, especially because the nine major divisions that comprise the manufacture sector are not homogenous in their structure and respond differently to the fluctuations of the global economy.
From the census information of, and INEGI, various years some regularities at the manufacture activity division level can be observed for two periods: Generally speaking, the Central region is one in which the growth of the economic activity, measured through the census real gross value added valor agregado censal bruto realVACBRis low and even negative in some activity divisions, and the changes that manifest between the two periods are not significant due to their scale.
However, some states stand out due to the dynamic, or significant drops, that some activity divisions present see Table 2as described below. Average annual growth by periods, — At constant prices. Food products, beverages and tobacco; Division II. Textiles, clothing and leather industry; Division III.
Timber industry and wood products; Division IV. Paper, paper products, print and publishers; Division V. Chemical substances, petroleum derivatives, rubber products and introxuccion Division VI.
Non-metallic mineral products, except petroleum and carbon derivatives; Division VII. Metallic products, machinery and equipment; Division IX. In the case of Division I. Food products, beverages and tobaccothe region as a whole presents a decrease in the average annual growth of the VACBR from 2.
The State of Mexico has practically maintained its growth levels see Table